In this WP, hydro-chemical modelling will be used to provide a knowledge base of existing eutrophication and flooding conditions and their implications for the provision of ecosystem services and human well-being in the four case study areas. The results will be used as inputs in the Social Learning process in the four case areas. The researchers will also use modelling to assess the impacts of climate change (selected scenarios) and the environmental mitigation and flood prevention scenarios developed in the social learning process on the provision of ecosystem services in the four case study areas. Results will then be scaled up to the Baltic Sea Region scale. The studies will support the formulation and assessment of innovative governance structures and policy instruments.

2.1 Data from study areas in a joint database; prepared for 1st stakeholder meetings
2.2 Modelled baseline flooding and eutrophication based on data verified by stakeholders
2.3 Report on scenario modelling of measures suggested by stakeholders to reduce flooding, eutrophication, enhance biodiversity and contribute to other goals, as well as climate change scenarios
2.4 Revision of modelled scenarios as suggested in stakeholder workshops 3
2.5 Baseline and climate change scenarios for the whole BSR
2.6 Report on climate change scenarios for the whole BSR
2.7 Report on Modelling flood control and eutrophication mitigation measures for the BSR in a changing climate

WP leader: Tomasz Walczykiewicz